Breathe
By Yessica de la Madrid
The year 2025 is a crucial period for the government of President Claudia Sheinbaum, who assumed the Presidency of Mexico last October 1st, with the promise of consolidating the "Fourth Transformation", the political-social ideology of former President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, which mainly points towards a "new centralism". Only this time, she will do it with the debts of that exercise of power and with an adverse international panorama, which could put in check the historical ambitions of the one who preceded her.
In January 2025, Claudia Sheinbaum takes full command of the government, with a budget already prepared by her administration: 9.3 billion pesos to attend to the real start-up of her government.
However, there are several challenges ahead at the beginning of the year. Politically, the main challenges he will face in the first month of the year will be the dangerous relations with the United States, the governance challenges in the states of the Republic, but, above all, he will have to make his hand felt on Morena, his party, which is the basis for the actions of his mandate in the Congress of the Union, where there are still those who believe that it is López Obrador who orders.
The first bomb to defuse comes from the US-Mexico relationship. The fentanyl crisis, drug trafficking and undocumented migration to the United States made Mexico the heart of Donald Trump's campaign, who will begin his administration on January 20. Trump will continue to point to Mexico as the main culprit for the problems faced in his country, generating unnecessary tensions. As an example, just one button is enough: the threats he made since November 2024 when he declared that he will impose 25 percent tariffs on Mexican exports if significant measures are not taken to curb the flow of drugs. So far, President Sheinbaum has weathered these submissive attempts with stature and firmness.
However, public security is undoubtedly one of the biggest challenges for Sheinbaum's government. Violence and organized crime continue to prevail in the country. To address this challenge, the government will need to invest more in public security and strengthen the institutions in charge of combating organized crime and common crime. It seems that, with Omar García Harfuch in charge of security, President Sheinbaum is clear that "hugs not bullets" has cost us Mexicans dearly.
On the economic front, Sheinbaum will face significant challenges related to stagnant federal budget revenues and growing indebtedness.
The 2025 Economic Package, which includes a budget of 9.3 trillion pesos, prioritizes social programs and infrastructure projects, but also faces criticism for the lack of sustainability in public finances. The administration will have to strike a balance between austerity and investment in key sectors such as health, education and security to ensure sustainable economic growth.
In Banco de México's latest consultation with private analysts on forecasts for 2025, it is pointed out that the general inflation estimate is 3.80 percent at the end of 2025. However, in the economic expansion estimate, they only see 1.12 percent of the Gross Domestic Product and an exchange rate of 20.53 pesos for next December.
In all of the above, the relationship with the United States plays a very relevant role. The next Trump administration has revived plans for massive deportations, the reactivation of the construction of the border wall, the militarization of the border and the appointment of the future ambassador, a retired military officer, which will undoubtedly seek to further strain relations between the two countries. In addition, the tariff threats and the revision of the Treaty between the United States, Mexico and Canada (T-MEC) in 2026.
Claudia Sheinbaum will have to maintain firm diplomacy and protect Mexico's sovereignty while seeking to strengthen trade and security relations with its main economic partner. To do so, she needs the private sector, a sector hurt by Morena since 2018. It will be necessary to mend what is broken.
The other major challenge is governance; it will be a fundamental aspect of Sheinbaum's success. The disappearance of autonomous agencies has raised concerns about the effectiveness and transparency of government, in Mexico and with our trading partners.
The administration will have to redefine the regulatory framework to ensure that the critical functions of these agencies are assumed by reliable institutions. In addition, the reform of the Judicial Branch, which includes the popular election of judges and magistrates, crucial to democratize access to justice and fight corruption, as has been justified from the National Palace, will pass the litmus test of moving from what is written in the reforms to their translation into action.
We must be alert to the signs. We must be prudent in the projection and execution of spending, not only in government and business, but also in the maintenance budgets of our families.
The beginning of this year will be a period of great challenges and opportunities for Claudia Sheinbaum's government. Beyond philias and phobias, for the good of all Mexicans, let us hope that things turn out better than projected. President Sheinbaum has the opportunity to build a more just and prosperous Mexico for all.
The opinions expressed are the responsibility of the authors and are absolutely independent of the position and editorial line of the company. Opinion 51.
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