Breathe
By Stephanie Henaro
We are approaching a point of no return, the mothers of international systems are wars, and this one in front of us is about to give birth.
In fact, it is important to realize that this 2025 is looking more and more like 1934, the point of no return before World War II broke out in 1939, and the world changed. So once again, Mark Twain is right when he says that "history doesn't repeat itself, but it sure rhymes."
Three years ago, the war between Russia and Ukraine changed everything right under our noses and without asking anyone's permission, and to be even clearer, what we are experiencing now is equivalent to sliding on a slide, only to realize that just as in 1934, what was ceased to be, simply because it was broken, and this is clear when we look at three recurring signs. Such as the expiration of peace treaties and international institutions, the rise of nationalism and democratic backsliding under economic difficulties, and also the first failures of collective security.
The latest exchange of back-and-forth between French President Emmanuel Macron and Russian President Vladimir Putin are further evidence that something big is about to happen. The Frenchman called his Russian counterpart an "imperialist" trying to "rewrite history" after Putin compared Macron's proposal to extend France's nuclear umbrella to its European allies to Napoleon Bonaparte's failed invasion in 1812. In addition, peace negotiations to end the war that changed everything in the 21st century are being conducted between countries, outside the UN, which has been reduced to a debating club. That is why, just as at that time, the expiration of peace treaties and international institutions is being warned.
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