Breathe
By Soledad Durazo
In politics, perception and reality often walk in opposite directions, leaving a trail of doubts and contradictions along the way. More so in the case of Mexico.
Based on this, I would like to talk about the Integralia consulting firm's report, The Ten Political Risks for 2025, which exposes a panorama that forces us to question the country's course amidst massive applause and narratives of success in the polls, but with convulsive scenarios for what may come from the analysis of those who know the subject.
To begin with, how solid are the foundations on which this alleged optimism of the polls is based?
President Claudia Sheinbaum, with more than 80% approval according to several pollsters, including Enkoll, https://www.opinion51.com/heidi-osuna-2501-aprobada-por seems to have inherited her transformation narrative. However, risk number five of the report warns about reforms promoted without technical consensus, favoring political criteria. Does judicial reform, hailed as a recovery of the democratic essence, not entail dangers of legal defenselessness, as Integralia points out? To democratically elect judges and magistrates will result, as I have already said, in courts subordinated to political interests, as occurs in less consolidated democracies.
Moreover, Pemex's crisis illustrates the fragility of the economic model. The reduction of drilling rigs, which fell 47.9% in one year, reflects how the lack of payments to suppliers directly affects national production. How can a government that boasts of energy self-sufficiency allow its oil jewel to collapse? Monitor Energético makes it clear: administrative negligence, inherited and accentuated, is the main cause. Here connects risk nine of the report: a possible hasty fiscal reform to finance priority projects while strategic sectors languish.
Another critical point is the return of Donald Trump to the White House, categorized as a "very high impact" risk. Mexico faces migratory, commercial and diplomatic tensions that could put the T-MEC in check. Is the president prepared to deal with an uncomfortable neighbor, or is the optimism of the 34% who believe in her ability to manage Trump just that, optimism? Integralia's report also points to the erosion of political counterweights, a phenomenon that weakens not only the opposition, but also Mexico's ability to withstand external shocks.
Finally, insecurity. Integralia warns about the increase in violent confrontations between cartels, affecting not only daily life, but also the operation of MSMEs. The fact is not minor considering that now, as never before, mafias and criminal groups are co-opting the productive chains of this country: setting sales prices, supply systems to their own interests, and charging even those who sell tortillas.
So a full Zócalo, standing ovations and high approval ratings are not enough to guarantee a stable country. The scenarios that are foreseen may be very convulsive. As the report points out, the centralization of power (risk ten) threatens the operability of local governments, suffocated by corruption and lack of resources. And although the consultancy gives this section a medium risk level, I believe it falls short because the federal entities also suffer a decrease in budgets and subordination to central power is greater since Morena has won more municipalities, states and legislative positions at federal and state level.
How to reconcile this panorama with citizen enthusiasm? The ten risks outlined are a warning: behind the approval numbers and triumphalist speeches lies a reality that demands critical analysis and immediate action. The question is not whether these risks will materialize, but how much longer we can ignore the symptoms before the mirage fades away. Are we ready to face them or will we continue betting on easy applause?
*General editor of Opinión 51. National Journalism Award 2023 for her career. Host of Grupo Fórmula Sonora.
The opinions expressed are the responsibility of the authors and are absolutely independent of the position and editorial line of the company. Opinion 51.
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