Breathe
By Sofía Guadarrama Collado
In 1933, Adolf Hitler dismantled the German system of government in only 2 months. Donald Trump has barely been in the White House for fifteen days and he has already practically overturned all the progress made during Joe Biden's administration and destabilized the democratic system in the United States.
Donald Trump is 78 years old. He will finish his administration at 82. He has nothing to lose. If everything goes as he wishes, he could well inherit the Yankee empire to his sons Donald Jr. and Baron.
Many of us were wrong in our forecasts. We underestimated him. This new Donald Trump did not arrive with scissors, nor with an axe, he entered the White House with a chainsaw in his hands and he does not care about affecting his country's economy. It wasn't just bluster. President Donald Trump imposed tariffs of 25% on Mexico and Canada, his main trading partners, and 10% on China. The message was clear: "Until you stop drug trafficking, illegal immigration and the trade deficit." Trump has already acknowledged that this will create problems for his country's economy: "It will be worth all the cost we have to pay".
Yes, it is very true that tariffs will increase the prices of automobiles, gasoline, electronics, and countless other products. But Mexico depends more on the United States than the United States depends on us. Mexico has a titanic dependence on the United States, starting with gas, tourism, production chains and remittances.
Apparently, Trump believed it was not enough to declare the cartels as terrorist groups (which would allow him to order covert operations, drone strikes, and economic sanctions on Mexico). He is determined to fulfill his main campaign promises: to get undocumented immigrants and fentanyl out of the United States. And to prove that he is no longer the same bully who lost the election 4 years ago, he lobbed a grenade at Mexico with one of the most dangerous accusations ever made in the history of bilateral relations between the two countries:
"Mexican drug trafficking organizations have an intolerable alliance with the government of Mexico. The government of Mexico has provided safe havens for the cartels to engage in the manufacture and transportation of dangerous narcotics."
Regardless of how true this is and how much it is whispered in Mexico, the fact that it is the White House that is making this accusation is shattering, because it is not something that will remain just an accusation, but will move forward and continue to hit the Mexican government and our economy.
Days before Trump made this accusation, Claudia Sheinbaum had met with businessmen, the Secretaries of Finance, Rogelio Ramirez de la O; Economy, Marcelo Ebrard; Government, Rosa Icela Rodriguez; Environment and Natural Resources, Alicia Barcena and Altagracia Gomez, Coordinator of the Advisory Council, to define routes, but they did not see this coming.
It will do no good for the deputies to defend Claudia Sheinbaum in the Congress of the Union or to sing the national anthem. It will do no good for the president to write long tweets denying that her government and that of López Obrador (who in the end are the same) are associated with drug lords. What does the government intend to do in the face of the growing threats from its counterpart? Impose tariffs on the United States? Do you think the president of the United States has not considered such retaliation?
Yesterday, Sunday, the exchange rate of our currency against the dollar reached 21 pesos. There are economists who believe it will reach 23 pesos. Mexican products will inevitably rise in price. Exports of key products such as avocados, tomatoes, berries and beer will be the most affected. According to Bloomberg, exports - which account for about 40 percent of national GDP - could fall by as much as 30 percent. Those who were rubbing their hands with the arrival of nearshoring will have to re-evaluate their investments in Mexico, where thousands of jobs will be lost.
Donald Trump is not only going to crush Claudia Sheinbaum, he is going to crush her until he forces her to close the borders with the National Guard and start a war against the narco. No, ladies and gentlemen, this time it will not be like the one waged by Felipe Calderón. The coming war will include agents from the DEA, the FBI, the CIA and the U.S. Army.
Beware, Donald Trump is not coming to save Mexico; he is not interested in Mexican democracy, nor in the dismantling of INE, INAI, the Judiciary and all autonomous bodies. On the contrary, it is in his interest that U.S. companies leave Mexico and return to their country. He will let the fourté continue destroying our nation as long as he stops migration and drug trafficking to his country.
And as Andrés Manuel López Obrador would say at the beginning of the pandemic: "It hit us like a glove. Of course, not to Mexicans, but to him and his brood of thugs. This is music to his ears. No wonder he spent the whole last six years kicking the hornet's nest, but Joe Biden, who was always moderate, did not let himself be hooked by Mexico's first bully.
The theatrics in the Congress of the Union in which they sang the national anthem as a show of support for Claudia Sheinbaum is the main sign of the direction in which they will handle foreign policy and the spectacle of the mornings: national sovereignty, louder, let it be heard all the way to the border, national unity, with euphoria, chinga, patriotic unity! Hollow and dangerous unity. Polarization at the highest level. Hatred of Trump and Yankee imperialism. And much, much victimization: "Trump is the bad guy, I am the good one, his president".
The opinions expressed are the responsibility of the authors and are absolutely independent of the position and editorial line of the company. Opinion 51.
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