Breathe
By Sofia Guadarrama Collado
Much has been discussed these days in various columns, analysis tables and radio programs, that with the second arrival of Donald Trump to the White House, the U.S. system of government and the dynasties that governed them: the Bushes, the Clintons, the Obamas, among others, collapsed.
The most fanatical assure that, just as the Roman, Mongol, Ottoman, Chinese, British, Spanish, French and Russian empires fell, the "Yankee empire" will fall, but from within. The most naïve predict that the American system of government will implode.
I doubt that will happen. Not for now. Donald Trump's arrival in the White House for the second time is not the end of the world. We already lived through it and suffered through four years. Yes, he won with a huge majority. He swept. But so did Ronald Riegan in 1984, in his re-election in which he won with 525 of 538 Electoral College votes. Still, the Democrats will return to the White House, maybe in eight or 12 years, but they will.
Meanwhile, U.S. millionaires are happy with Trump's comeback, as one of his main promises is to impose a protectionist policy, with tariffs between 10 and 20 percent and in some cases up to 200.
According to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index: the 10 richest people in the world became richer with Donald Trump's victory in the U.S. presidential election. Their fortunes increased by 64 billion dollars. The most benefited was Elon Musk, whose fortune increased by 26.5 billion dollars. Today he has 290 billion dollars.
The best thing that could have happened to Donald Trump in 2020 was losing the election. First because Joe Biden's administration took care of the vaccines and the economic crisis during and after the pandemic. All the bad stuff fell on Biden and not Trump. He got the easy part: judging the man who got him out of the White House.
Donald Trump had four years to lick his wounds and to analyze what he did wrong and what he could do worse. Although in his language it is what he could do better. He had four years to martyr himself. Four years to campaign. And thus, it is extremely easy to win elections. Just ask Andrés Manuel López Obrador and Claudia Sheinbaum.
Another of Donald Trump's main campaign promises was to close the border, carry out the largest mass deportation in history, starting with one million illegal migrants, renegotiate the T-MEC and invade Mexico if Claudia Sheinbaum's government does not stop drug trafficking to the United States.
Let's take it one step at a time:
According to the Department of Homeland Security and the Pew Research Institute, 11 million undocumented migrants currently live in the United States.
The U.S. budget for deportation of illegal immigrants was:
In 2016, $3.9 billion.
In 2017, $4.2 billion.
In 2018, $3.076 billion.
In 2019, $4.1 billion.
In 2020, $4.8 billion
In 2021, $5.4 billion
In 2022, $2.3 billion.
In 2023, $4.8 billion
During Bill Clinton's administration, more than 827,100 people were deported; under George W. Bush, 2 million. Barack Obama, 3 million. Trump 1.5 million in 4 years. Biden deported 1.1 million. The average number of deportations per year in the last three administrations is 375,000 deportations per year. Just over a thousand people a day.
In Trump's first four-year term, just over $16 billion was spent to deport 1.5 million people.
To achieve a mass deportation of one million undocumented immigrants, the government would need to invest a minimum of $16 billion in one year, change laws in sanctuary states that do not facilitate deportation as Trump would like, and quadruple the number of United States Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) personnel .
Deportations in the United States are not so simple. They take time. For example, if an immigrant is apprehended crossing the border, he or she is deported the next day. But if the immigrant says he or she is seeking asylum or that his or her life is in danger in his or her home country, immigration agents are required to schedule an appointment with a judge, who will decide whether or not the immigrant is eligible for political asylum. Sometimes this can take a week and sometimes it can take months.
During the pandemic, Title 42, a policy, invoked on public health grounds, was implemented whereby border authorities could deny immigrants' asylum claims and immediately remove them.
If the immigrant has been living in the U.S. for five or ten years, he or she can ask to see the judge. Again, they hold him or her in detention for weeks or months, until they give him or her an appointment.
On the other hand, raids on the streets and workplaces are becoming less and less effective. For decades, employers have been perfecting their strategies to avoid being caught by immigration agents in raids.
It is practically impossible to deport a million people in a year. The system is collapsed. Donald Trump knows it. But as they say in English: he's just bluffing.
What is certain is that Donald Trump can easily hang Claudia Sheinbaum's government with the threat of closing the border, imposing tariffs and invading Mexico if it does not toughen its policies against organized crime.
Of course Trump will be a more powerful president. But so will Sheinbaum [López Obrador], so negotiations will be much easier. They speak the same language. Trump is a negotiator. He will get what he wants: 40,000 or 60,000 National Guard agents guarding Mexico's northern and southern border to keep Central American immigrants out, a new free trade agreement that benefits the United States and turns its back on China, and maybe, it's not very certain, but, maybe, a war on drugs. And despite all the bad things that are going to happen, for the current Mexican government, the arrival of Trump to the White House is the best thing that could have happened. One day, they might even get Ismael "El Mayo" Zambada back. If on one occasion they already negotiated the release of General Salvador Cienfuegos...
The opinions expressed are the responsibility of the authors and are absolutely independent of the position and editorial line of the company. Opinion 51.
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