Breathe
By Pía Taracena Gout.
Yesterday, February 20, marked Donald Trump's first month in the presidency of the United States and he has really moved the international agenda. From his threats in the form of territorial expansionism, by seeking the purchase of Greenland, the renaming of the Gulf of Mexico and tensions over the Panama Canal, to more serious pressures such as those imposed on Mexico or Ukraine.
For Mexico the threats are real, spy plane flights, the naming of Mexican drug cartels as terrorists, plus the imposition of tariffs, has put the Mexican government to work to find the best strategy to please the U.S. president and to open a breach to better direct the bilateral relationship.
While in the early days of the Trump administration, Mexico was the most threatened, by the fourth week Ukraine became the focus of his attention. Provoking with a narrative that makes it clear that President Zelensky has little time left in power. It is obvious that Putin does not want him, has always considered him spurious and has managed to convince Trump that his time has come and that there should be a change of power in Ukraine. Incredible as it may seem President Trump took the bait and without further ado called him a dictator, unpopular, and even dared to accuse him of having started the war with Russia.
But what is the reality in Ukraine? A war that went on longer than expected, especially on the part of Russia, which did not measure the strength of the small country. Putin has not been able to reach the capital even though he gained some territory, but he has had a considerable military attrition and human losses. It is logical to think that a ceasefire is in the interest of both countries. But the gap of what each country wants as a final result does not allow agreeing on the end of the war, only, of course, if Trump manages to move forward. His strategy has been clear, a meeting in Riyadh, between the Secretaries of State, without the Europeans and without the Ukrainians.
It is interesting to see that between the syrupy call between Putin and Trump and the sweet deals between Lavrov and Rubio, the sacrificed is Ukraine. The possible ceasefire would imply the bitter defeat of Ukraine as being more favorable to Russian interests. In addition to the existential discomfort for Ukrainians, having to manage a "new" border of about 2000 km with the loss of Lugansk, Donetsk, Zaporiyia, Kherson and not to mention Crimea and on Russian territory, return Kursk, which since August 2024, Ukrainian forces breached and that Russia is not willing to give up.
As for the popularity of President Zelensky and the issue that he is a dictator, the polls are not so unfavorable to the Ukrainian president, according to the Kiev Independent newspaper, a February 19 poll favored Zelensky in popularity with 57%. What can be discussed is the attrition of the Ukrainian people who do want a negotiation to end the conflict. On the issue that he is a dictator, Ukraine is under martial law and according to their constitution they cannot hold elections in that situation. Zelensky is left to strengthen his relationship with Europe and turn to Turkey for support with countries that have interests in the area. If there is a ceasefire, the long road to a peace treaty will have to be started and in that sense, Europe and Turkey will have something to say.
