Breathe
By Stephanie Henaro
November 5, 2024 is approaching and the results of the latest polls make it inevitable to wonder if we are ready for Trump's return.
The chances of his return are high. The latest poll published by the Washington Post and ABC gives him a 10-point lead over Biden with 52% of the preferences, Fox News' poll places him with 48% of the preferences over Biden's 46%, CNN's with 47% and Biden with 46%, while The Wall Street Journal's poll keeps the two in a tie with 46% of the preferences.
His return is a possibility that at this stage of the game can no longer be denied, nor can it be denied that his foreign policy guidelines are difficult to anticipate. Because if there is one thing Donald Trump has proven to be, it is unpredictable, with the exception of his ability to hit the Mexican piñata.
This is important because considering that one of his dreams was to declare the Mexican Cartels as terrorist groups, the conditions would be ideal for him.
An IPSOS/Reuters poll published this September found that 52% of respondents would agree with sending U.S. military personnel to Mexico to fight drug cartels, while 26% were opposed and the rest did not know. In the case of Republicans, 64% agreed and 28% opposed, and in the case of Democrats, 47% agreed and 44% opposed.
So is the binational temperature in which Donald Trump would arrive for what has become Mexico's fifth largest employer and the largest supplier of millions of addicts on the other side of the border, who generate the demand and have reached record-breaking overdose deaths in this third wave of opioids that is further complicated by the entry of India into the equation.
Meanwhile on the other side of the world, it is quite likely that if the Republican returns to the White House he will not be so enthusiastic about sanctions on Russia and support for Ukraine because in his view "America First" must be put first and this is a direct message to NATO and other bilateral security treaties such as those with South Korea and Japan.
From there on, I don't think many other things will change, because although Biden has insisted on being different -at least in his speech-, he has not deviated much from Trump's line on protectionist issues, in relation to Iran and even in relation to the withdrawal from Afghanistan, which ultimately left a mark on this administration in the international arena.
Finally, as far as China is concerned -and this is perhaps the most important bilateral relationship in the world at the moment-, hostility could diminish because unlike Biden who is concerned about democracy worldwide, the New York magnate's problems with the Asian giant were merely economic and that is why I dare say that the definition will be around Taiwan, and in this Trump's position still remains an enigma.
The election is 14 months away and without a doubt many things can change, but it is not an exaggeration to be prepared, especially when Mexico will have to deal with Madam President .
Last one to leave, turn off the light.
The opinions expressed are the responsibility of the authors and are absolutely independent of the position and editorial line of Opinion 51.
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