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By Raquel López-Portillo Maltos
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Faced with a new turning point in the war in Ukraine, President Volodomyr Zelensky is seen desperately moving between distant latitudes and actors. This is not gratuitous considering that, two years and eight months after the beginning of the Russian invasion, there is no light at the end of the tunnel. Despite Zelensky's assertion on Tuesday on Capitol Hill that with U.S. support they can repel Russian forces once and for all, the reality is that the Ukrainian counter-offensive that promised great victories has fallen short, with at least 20 percent of the territory still in the hands of Russian troops. What implications does his visit to Washington D.C. have for the war in this country? And what strange common ground does he find with our own?

Zelensky faces not only an invading military, but also a handful of extremist Republican congressmen who adamantly refuse to continue funding Ukrainian defense without getting something in return. While initially the argument behind this decision was based on the ineffectiveness of this economic support in obtaining results, as well as an alleged lack of accountability on the part of Zelensky's administration, in the last few weeks, this thesis took an unexpected turn, placing Mexico at the center of the controversy. Republicans are now advocating that the border where the focus should really be on Mexico and the United States, and will not proceed to approve aid to Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan until this long-standing problem is resolved. 

It is worth noting that in this case, they are not necessarily advocating for a much larger budget for this purpose, but rather changes at the policy level . In true Donald Trump style, among the proposals that have been put on the table are limiting the right to asylum and parole, expelling migrants without processing their asylum applications (basically, a return to Title 42), facilitating detention centers in military facilities, continuing the prolonged detention of families, and expanding the safe third country status. In this regard, President Joe Biden stated this week that he is committed to negotiate, with the implications that this entails.

Even with the difficulties that follow the formation of a potential bipartisan agreement reaching the House of Representatives, there is a good chance that it will pass, even if not before the end of the year. However, such approval under the Republican threat would come at the expense of immigration policy in Mexico. It would mean continuing to raise a banner of defense of democracy to the detriment of the basic rights of millions of people who cross the border in search of a better life. 

Moreover, even with his approval, this financing will eventually reach its limit, particularly considering that the beginning of the election year is just around the corner and that the conflict, unfortunately, is going to last for a long time. For this reason, Zelensky has tried to turn to other avenues, from the International Monetary Fund to a greater rapprochement with the so-called global south, as evidenced by his attendance at Javier Milei's inauguration and bilateral meetings with various Latin American leaders. 

In the case of the war in Ukraine, some experts advocate the need for the initiation of a negotiation process that starts from assuming a portion of the Ukrainian territorial loss, leaving behind the hopes of recovering Crimea. However, Zelensky's actions, words, and meetings with other leaders attempt to support the narrative that they are not losing and that this scenario is not plausible. 

In the case of the Mexican border, it is surprising that, considering the relevance of linking the military aid budget with migration issues, it is not being given the importance it deserves. So far, Mexico has not made any pronouncements on the matter, despite the fact that it directly affects our sovereignty. For the time being, the fate of the war and the fate of our border are in the midst of an alien but decisive crossfire.

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@RaquelLPM

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