Breathe
By Raquel López-Portillo Maltos
Yesterday, images of the takeover of Ecuador's TC Television channel, the kidnapping of students and staff of the University of Guayaquil and the live broadcast of the murder of three prison guides by members of organized crime caused great commotion. Although the trigger for this particular situation was the declaration of a state of emergency due to the escape of drug trafficking leader Adolfo "Fito" Macias from a prison in Guayaquil, every crisis of violence has deeper roots. The one that touches Ecuador goes back years and is connected to several neighbors in the region.
Ecuador's geographic position places it in geopolitical check, as it neighbors two of the region's main drug producers: Colombia and Peru. While this made it an inescapable drug transit route, it was in 2010 that this trend was reversed, as it also became an important production and export center. Since then, Guayas and Esmeraldas have been the provinces most affected by organized crime. Guayaquil has remained one of the critical points, as it is the port from which drugs are exported, mainly to the United States and Europe.
In addition, the social climate has worsened with inflationary pressure, rising fuel and fertilizer prices, the marginalization of indigenous populations and the discontent of a society in which 39 percent of the population suffers from multidimensional poverty. In recent years, there have been several drops that have spilled the glass of democratic order. Although there are different nuances in the domestic problems that afflict Ecuador, it is possible to affirm that most of the main crises that have been triggered in recent years derive from the government's lack of control over the penitentiary system. Criminal cells have complete control of the wards, from where they manage the logistics of their trafficking operations and where they trigger riots and brawls in response to security operations.
Under the administration of former President Rafael Correa, security conditions deteriorated as he granted truce to certain groups, reduced cooperation with the United States and Colombia, and dismantled the country's intelligence units. Under Lenín Moreno's administration, the prison crisis worsened, concluding his administration with a rate of 21 violent deaths per 10,000 inmates due to riots and disputes between criminal groups. Finally, Guillermo Lasso's administration resorted to the use of a state of emergency on numerous occasions in an attempt to control the situation, without favorable results. In 2022, following an operation to "put prisons in order", a wave of serious violent attacks was unleashed. His term of office ended with the regrettable assassination of presidential candidate Fernando Villavicencio at the hands of organized crime.
This situation touches Mexico because of the economic and operational alliances that the Ecuadorian cells, several of which President Daniel Noboa called terrorists, have with Mexican cartels. But it also touches the country because of the management of the security policy, because the reality is that as shocking as the images circulated of the day of violence in Ecuador have been, actions of this same magnitude have become the daily bread in Mexico as well. Although it has become normalized, we must not forget that we live in a country where organized crime murders, kidnaps, burns, extorts, threatens and terrorizes everywhere. In Ecuador, an internal armed conflict was immediately declared , which authorizes the Armed Forces of Ecuador to carry out the necessary operations to "neutralize" these groups, with the risks and consequences that this implies. In Mexico, by privileging hugs over bullets, we do not have a categorization that even recognizes the magnitude of the problem.
Crises such as the one Ecuador is going through make people look longingly at security policies such as those implemented by Nayib Bukele in El Salvador, where there seems to be a social disposition to exchange human rights for security. Although he has not said so explicitly, Noboa's latest statements suggest that he will veer towards that path. Just a few days ago, he announced the construction of two mega prisons in the style of those in El Salvador. In his words, "the laws we have are not enough to live in peace. We are not going to negotiate with terrorists". The next few days will define the governance with which he begins his mandate and, to a great extent, the political and social future of Ecuador. In a country where criminal terrorism has declared war on the State, the way in which the crisis is resolved should also serve as a focus of attention for the rest of Latin America.
*Raquel López-Portillo Maltos holds a Master's degree in Government and Public Policy from the Universidad Panamericana, a Bachelor's degree in Human Rights and Peace Management from the Universidad del Claustro de Sor Juana and a specialist in Political Analysis, Democracy and Elections from the Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas (CIDE). She has worked in the public, private and civil society sectors in the areas of international analysis, security, human rights and gender equality. She is currently Executive Secretary of the Youth Program of the Mexican Council on International Affairs and columnist for the newspaper El Universal. She collaborates as an international analyst in different media.
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