Breathe
By Raquel López-Portillo Maltos
Amid heightened tensions, the White House has confirmed Secretary of State Anthony Blinken's visit to China this weekend. Following the cancellation of the trip that was scheduled last February due to the Chinese spy balloon incident, this is the most important high-level dialogue that has taken place between the two nations since the meeting between Presidents Joe Biden and Xi Jinping during the G20 meeting. In the midst of the expectations generated by approaches of this nature in an intrinsically complex bilateral relationship, it is worth evaluating the possible balances that the meeting will generate and its implications.
The mere realization of the event puts China on the more favorable side of the balance, given the fact that the meeting itself, and the conditions under which China will enter into dialogue, were initiated on its terms before Blinken even set foot on its territory. With the previous call between Foreign Minister Qin Gang and Anthony Blinken, Xi Jinping's government made it clear that they are not willing to allow meddling in internal affairs, even if it means suspending the dialogue again.
Beyond that, efforts to reschedule came from the Biden administration, which China resisted as much as possible. They did not even allow a meeting between the two nations' defense ministers at a security summit in Singapore in recent days. All this sends a message that it is the United States, not China, that sought the meeting at all costs.
This is particularly important considering the narrative that the Chinese Communist Party has been pushing for some months now and which has been reinforced after the last G7 meeting where the West showed a more united and vocal front with respect to China and Russia. This is summarized in that the United States and its allies will supposedly try to replicate a scenario like the war in Ukraine now in Taiwan because,according to the Chinese government, the U.S. seeks to consolidate an alliance similar to NATO but focused on the Asia-Pacific region. In view of this, the Chinese bet is to continue deploying its diplomacy everywhere where the West has lost influence and to evidence any risk or interference that may have an impact on the security of the area as proof of its argument.
Domestically, in this attempt to "keep the lines of communication open to responsibly manage the relationship," Joe Biden will have to weigh whether maintaining such dialogue brings greater costs or benefits at a juncture where any misstep could mean the loss of a second term in office. In particular, Biden and his party will have to achieve tangible results in the short term as some figures in Congress and in some media have already begun to question whether holding talks really generates some kind of benefit for US interests or whether it has only resulted in the country making certain concessions or lowering the tone of its demands regarding issues such as claims over the South China Sea, human rights abuses in Xinjiang, Tibet and Hong Kong, as well as China's tacit support for Russia during the invasion of Ukraine. This will undoubtedly be taken up and reinforced by the Republican Party during the already tense electoral contest on the road to the primaries.
Everything indicates that at least this first meeting will not delve into the most sensitive issues concerning the two countries, much less change the status quo of tensions and distensions that has characterized the dialectic between China and the United States. In this duel of titans, it remains to be seen whether mistrust or the responsibility expected of two world powers will prevail.
The opinions expressed are the responsibility of the authors and are absolutely independent of the position and editorial line of Opinion 51.
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