Breathe
By Heidi Osuna
Political debates are one of the many important things that happen during campaigns, but by themselves have not changed the course of an election in Mexico. They might as well be compared to a soccer game. When a person decides to go to the soccer stadium to watch a game, the majority of people will go to a team, and even if that team loses by a goal, that person will not change his or her preference and will think that his or her team did not do so badly. So it is with those who watch the debates. Like loyal fans of a soccer team, voters who already have a preference for a candidate maintain their political preferences regardless of the outcome of the debate, even in the event of a loss.
For this reason, it is relevant to analyze how the candidates arrived at the first debate. According to the last poll we published in Enkoll, conducted for "El País" and "W Radio", at the end of February Sheinbaum was leading with 53% of the gross preference, followed by Gálvez with 29%, and in third place, Máynez with 3%. The remaining 15% corresponds to undecided voters, whom the candidates had the opportunity to captivate with their proposals during the debate.
The debate exercises leading up to this election have shown that they are not sufficient to change the entrenched opinions of voters. Although every word uttered in these debates has the potential to influence perceptions, this influence does not necessarily translate into significant changes in electoral outcomes.
This debate was no exception, as shown by the Enkoll post-debate survey, also conducted for "El País" and "W Radio". According to the results, 46% of those interviewed considered that Claudia Sheinbaum won the debate, 25% Xóchitl Galvez, 10% Jorge Álvarez Máynez. While 15% said they were undecided and 4% mentioned that none.
Just as in boxing, where the challenger is obliged to look for the knockout, in this debate, the PRI/PAN/PRD coalition candidate, who is in second place in the polls, was obliged to risk everything if she expected this debate to change the course of her campaign and generate a significant impact on her electoral preference. However, Claudia only had the task of guarding her lead and she succeeded, at least that's what the numbers say.
However, anything can happen. There are still 54 days and two more debates before Mexicans go to the polls to elect the next president. Until then, no one can say that "this rice is cooked".
The opinions expressed are the responsibility of the authors and are absolutely independent of the position and editorial line of the company. Opinion 51.
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